Saturday, February 7, 2015

World War III Anyone?

Just read Chancellor Merkel's speech, giving her reasoning, for not providing Ukraine with heavy defensive weapons. While she makes the valid point, Vlad's not going to back down if we up the ante; she misses the larger more salient point. Aggression unchecked, leads to more aggression. A lesson taught so well by her own ancestors, I'm flummoxed at the idea she can't see it.

As I read Ms. Merkels' statement, I couldn't help but be transported back to 1938.
The phrase "peace in our time" as proclaimed by Neville Chamberlain, upon his return from meeeting with Hitler, during which he gave Herr Hitler the West's blessing to Germany's march into the Sudetenland, rings with an ominous echo today.

Putin, has become bolder in his actions in light of the economic sanctions put into play, not less so, and certainly if we send in weapons, Russia will respond. Disproportianately.
In Czar Vlad's eyes, Ukraine is Russia, has been forever, and will continue as the western frontier of the largest nation on earth. Think "lebensraum" or in English "living room", the German term used by the Nazi's to describe their push east into Poland, Czechoslovakia....
Putin's using the same rationale, Ukraine is to Russia, what Eastern Europe was to the Nazi's.

Witness the demands coming from Moscow, while Merkel insists the original peace plan be the starting point for future discussions. Those demands for territory grow with every word passed in negotiation. So far as Putin is concerned, that first disingenuous offer made, which was never to be honored, was only subterfuge allowing Russia to inject more and better armed forces to the region, while consolidating facts on the ground.

Peace negotiations with Vlad are doomed to fail; sending only defensive weaponry to the Ukrainians, will only forestall the inevitable crushing of Ukraine, with inherent catastrophic effects to their society.
No, the only way to roll Vlad back, is to commit the full force of NATO to the cause, and do it soon.
Should Vlad find success in this folly, does anyone believe it stops there?
Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Georgia, these countries know all to well it stops when the Russians hit the Baltic.

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